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18.jpg (12888 bytes)ImageIn 1993 Iran's First Five-Year Social and Economic neveloyment plan, which followed the end of the war with Iraq, came to its end. On the whole the plan was a success, in some areas its achievements were even better than expected.
The Second Plan began in 1995 and will continue till 1999, the final year of the 20th century. The Second Plan has the following social and economic aims:
 Image   1- Efforts towards social justice and equity.
    2- Moral advancement on the basis of Islamic ethics, and general cultural and educatianal development of the society.
    3- Guidance of the youth towards God, native culture, purity, knowledge, creativity in arts and technology, physical training, and finally towards familyl amd social VartiCipation in cultural, political anA economic activities.
    4- Greater efficiency.
    5- Training of the necessary work force.
    6- Growth and development of a stable economy with a strong agricultural basis.
    7- Improvement in the supervisory and judicial systems of the country.
    8- Growth in the participation of the people in implementing the Plan.
    9- Expansion of non-oil exports and movement towards economic independence from oil.
    Image10- Environmental protection and better use of natural ressurces.
    11- Greater defensive power.
    12- More effective foreign Folicy.
    13- CompIute rule of the law and prevalence of security in the society.
    14- Research and development towards a more highly - developed nation.
    15- A more balanced economic structure (among public, private and coop sectors).
    16- Better use of financial resources and the state's potentials, according to the values of the Islamic Revolution.
To achieve these aims, the plan intends to adept the following major executive policies, amongst others:
Image    1- A more balanced social and economic structure that would raise the standards of living, working, education etc, etc, in the less advanced regions of the country to the same level as the more advanced areas.
    2- A better and more equitable quality of life among the nation: ie a more balanced distribution of Wealth and income.
     3- improvements in the fiscal and tax system.
     4- Elimination of false incomes.
     5- Expansion of social security system coveraffe and improvements in the system.
     6 - Special attention to deprived regions and rural areas, with priority given to employment, health and education,
     7- Protection of the needy and vulnerable members of the society.
     8- Extension of the educatianal system to cover all children and adolescents for general education
     9- Expansion of the insurance system for the self-em-ployed, to cover all.
    10- Protecting and securing the rights of both the consumers and producers.
    11- Reducing subsidies in some sectors and deviating the amount thus saved, to the more needy, through different channels.
    12- Eradication of goverty and social and economic inequality.
    13- Greater legal and economis security.
    14- More efficient exyenditure of the country's financial resources in cultural activitiesl education, health and medical treatment, higher education, research and physical training.

Production

23.jpg (13794 bytes)Gross domestic product, at 1982 fixed prices, is assumed by the Second Plan to grow at slightly above 5% during the Plan period (1994-9), from 13766 billion rials to about 18000 billions (1USD=3000 rials).
ImageConsidering that the population growth is now under control and the growth rate has been lonrered to 2.5%, at the beginning of the 21st century per capita GDP should reach about 256000 rials.

Investments

ImageGrowth of fixed gross domestic investments at 2982 fixed prices according to the Second Plan, should increase from 2262 billion rials in the first plan year to over 3000 billions by the final year of the plan. The total amount of gross domestic investments during this period is to amount to 14064 billion rials:


Sector Growth Rate(%)

Investment (Rials)

Agriculture

7.2

932.3

Industries & Mines

5.2

1,146.5

Electricity and Water

6.6

1,287.5

Oil and Gas

7.5

819.9

Construction

6.9

338.9

Transportation

10.5

2,188.8

Communications

9.4

313.3

Housing

4.3

4,505.2

Other Services

4.8

2,531.6

Services(Total) 6.0

9.538.8

 

6.2

14,063.9

Investments in 1996 are planned as follows:

Food and Medicinal Industries

US$ 14 m

Textile, Leather Ware and Clothing Industries

US$ 164 m

Chemical Industries

US$ 91 m

Non-Metal Mineral Industries

US$ 36 m

Electric and Electronic Industries

US$ 6 m

Metal Foundry Industries

US$ 63 m

Automotive and Motors

US$ 41 m

Others

US$ 317 m

Total

US$ 954 m

Handicrafts

US$ 14 m

Grand Total

US$ 773 m

 

Consumption

Private per capita consumption at 1982 fixed prices should mgrow from 151000 to 164000 rials per year during the Plan period.

Pllblic Budget

Total public revenues during the plan period has been predicted to grow by 15.2% amounting to 237311 billion rials. Of this amount 50% comes from oil revenues, 26% from taxes and other duties, and 24% from other sources.
Oil revenues are estimated to grow by 8.3%, tax revenues by 18.2% and others by 29.7%.
Budget expenditures during the same period are expected to grow by about 15% per annum from about 30,000 billion rials in 1494 to over 60,88C) billions in 1999. Total amount of expen-ditures duringthe period isexpected tobe about 238,187 billion rials of which 5bCro will be provided by the current budgets and 44% by development budgets.
According to estimated revenues and expenditures, the budget shsuld show a deficit of 875 billion rials during the plan period, which should be compensated by unspent budgets which are each year returned by the various departments, to the treasury.

Money and Credit

The monetary basis and the liquidity should grow by
12.50% because of expected growths of the government and the banking system's debts to the Central Bank. Therefore, considering the objective of growth of GDP and the growth of liquidity, the cost of living is expected to rise by an average of 12,5%.

Foreign Trade

Image

Revenues from oil exports, during the Plan period, are estimated at a total of 72.6 billion dollars and revenues from non-oil exports at 27.5 billions. During this period Iran must pay 8.2 billion dollars towards its foreign debts. It also requires about 91.9 billion dollars for imports during the same period.

 

Population and Employment

ImageBy the end of the Plan period, that is about the beginning of the 21st century, Iran's population is estimated to reach about 6,900,000 of whom 16,232,000 will be economically active. The number of economically active people should grow by about two millions during the Plan period, in the following sectors:

 

Sector

Growth Rate (%)

Increase by 3999
(x1000)

Agriculture

1.2

214

Industry

3.9

838

Water, Electricity and Gas

5.2

44

Transportation

4.7

229

Other Services

2.2

695

Total

2.7

2020

Manufacturing Industry and Agriculture

PictureIn 1986, statistics were taken on the Iranian industrial factories of all sizes. According to these statistics about 33% of the larger factories were situated in the province of Tehran, 10% in the province of Isfahan and 7% in the province of Khorassan, the rest in the other provinces, in the following order:



Manufactore1-  Tehran
2-  Isfahan
3-  Khorassan
4-  East Azerbailan
5-  The Central Province
6-  Fars
7-  Marrzandaran
8-  Zanjan
9-  Gilan
10-Khuzistan
The other provinces are insignificant as far as industrial activities are concerned.



In 1993 and 1994 Iran produced:

  1993 1994
Busgs

1,287

631

Minibuses

2.736

1,157

Trucks

3,643

2,953

Passenger Cars

39,511

52,811

Light Trucks

14,635

12,838

Tractors

6,347

5,081

Jeeps & Station Wagons

1,322

1,298

Combines

458

113

Bulldozers, Loaders,
Graders & Mechanical Shovels

749

86

Wagons

381

180

Auto Diesel Engines

5,413

1,424

Gearboxes

3,089

3,069

Machine Tools

1,179

2,419

Radiators (1)

1,610

2,218

Cement(3)

16.3

16.8

Glass (2)

256.2

259.1

Vehicle Tires (2)

81.1

97.6

Vegetable Oil (2)

616.7

674.9

Sugar and Cube Sugar (2)

844.2

777.9

l) tons; 2) 1,000tons; 3) milliontons
image
The country's non-oil exports amounted to about 4,450 million dollars (at the official rate of 1,750 rials per rJSD, current at the time), consisting of:

Agricultural and Traditional Goods

US$ 1,859.9 m

Minerals

US$ 64.2 m

Industrial Goods US$

US$ 1,061.0 m

Miscellaneous

US$ 242.1 m

Total

US$ 3,227.2 m*

*Based on Chamberr of Commerce, Industries and Mines' statistics.

IndustryOf the total of 14 million hectares of land presently under cultivatiotion, 48% is used for dry-farming, 41% for irrigation farming (various irrigation methods) and 9.2% for orchards and plantations leg of pistachios, dates, olives...).

 

 

 

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